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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.